Gino's Jungle

This year Ray Allen is shooting the ball with unbelievable accuracy. It's one thing for a guy to shoot as many 3's as Eddie House did back in the day and to make 44.4% of them; it's quite another for Ray to shoot as many as he does and to make 45.6% of them. In 2008-09 Eddie put up 340 attempts when he had his best year shooting from behind the arc. At his current rate, Ray Allen is on pace to shoot 407 threes.

So can he keep up with this percentage? At some point as the season goes along he has to slow down at least a little bit, right? Well, it's not so much the end of the season that I am worried about as it is the postseason.

The "Law of Averages" states that any event will even itself out over time to get back to normal. Although this isn't necessarily a "random" event as he has control over his shot, you notice how this stuff tends to work in sports. Unreal rates are never attained once a larger sample has been reached. An easy example is throughout the course of a game. After the first quarter a team may score 39 points and that would put them on pace to score 156 points. How often does that happen? Never.

You can't help but wonder if Ray is going to go super cold down the stretch to get himself back to his normal average. It's a scary thought and hopefully an inaccurate thought. Hopefully he is just on a roll this year and unlike in his past, 45.6% is his NEW true average.